> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Premier League·Friday 01 May, 19:00 UTC
Leeds vs Burnley
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
68.2% home20.0% draw11.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LeedsstepBurnley
2.18Base xG · rolling 26-match0.91
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.36Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.87
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
3
2
1
9
8
4
1
2
11
10
4
1
3
9
8
3
1
4
5
4
2
1
5
2
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Leeds 3–1 Burnley
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+