FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Friday, 01 May 2026
Leeds 3–1 BurnleyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 01 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Leeds at 68%, draw at 20%, Burnley at 12%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Leeds.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Leeds win
68%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
Burnley win
12%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.36 – 0.87
Total 3.23
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 20%
✗ Lost