> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Friday 08 May, 19:00 UTC
Levante vs Osasuna
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
38.5% home28.6% draw32.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LevantestepOsasuna
1.55Base xG · rolling 26-match1.60
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.53
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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1
7
10
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4
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2
6
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3
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + X2
Model 31.8% · @ 3.15x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Levante 3–2 Osasuna
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+