FT · Spain: La Liga · Friday, 08 May 2026
Levante 3–2 OsasunaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 08 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Levante at 39%, draw at 29%, Osasuna at 33%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Levante.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Levante win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Osasuna win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.67 – 1.53
Total 3.21
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 39%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.15x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- X2✗