> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 17 May, 19:00 UTC
Lille vs AJ Auxerre
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Lille's Champions League desperation against Auxerre's relegation fight creates asymmetric motivation favoring the banker 1X play at 81%.
Win probability
49.0% home30.5% draw20.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LillestepAJ Auxerre
1.51Base xG · rolling 26-match1.02
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.63Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.99
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
12
12
6
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lille 0–2 AJ Auxerre
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+