FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Lille 0–2 AJ AuxerreMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lille at 49%, draw at 31%, AJ Auxerre at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Lille to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lille win
49%
Draw
31%
Auxerre win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 0.99
Total 2.61
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.66x
- 1X✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Lille's Champions League desperation against Auxerre's relegation fight creates asymmetric motivation favoring the banker 1X play at 81%."