> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
Liverpool vs Brentford
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Liverpool's Champions League desperation combined with 78% over 1.5 goals probability makes this the most reliable edge despite tight win odds.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Liverpool
Pushing for Champions League
5th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +3.8% for motivation
Away
Brentford
Nothing to play for
9th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Win probability
38.4% home30.1% draw31.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LiverpoolstepBrentford
1.44Base xG · rolling 26-match1.45
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.55Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.39
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
7
5
2
1
1
8
11
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
5
3
1
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Liverpool 1–1 Brentford
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+