FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Liverpool 1–1 BrentfordMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Liverpool at 38%, draw at 30%, Brentford at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Liverpool to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
38%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
Brentford win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.39
Total 2.95
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Liverpool's Champions League desperation combined with 78% over 1.5 goals probability makes this the most reliable edge despite tight win odds."