> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Saturday 09 May, 11:30 UTC
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
40.0% home26.3% draw33.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LiverpoolstepChelsea
1.76Base xG · rolling 26-match1.81
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.90Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.74
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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5
6
0
3
5
4
2
1
1
5
9
8
4
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
1
3
3
5
5
3
1
4
1
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 2.5 Goals + Over 10.5 Corners + X2 + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 24.9% · @ 4.02x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+