FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Liverpool 1–1 ChelseaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Liverpool at 40%, draw at 26%, Chelsea at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Liverpool to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
40%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Chelsea win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.90 – 1.74
Total 3.64
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 44%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.02x
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- Over 10.5 Corners✗
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✗