> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 17 May, 19:00 UTC
Lorient vs Le Havre AC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Lorient's xG advantage (1.51 vs 1.12) combined with Le Havre's relegation desperation makes 1X at 76% the model's strongest play.
Win probability
42.9% home31.6% draw25.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LorientstepLe Havre AC
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.17
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.51Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.12
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lorient 0–2 Le Havre AC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+