FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Lorient 0–2 Le Havre ACMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lorient at 43%, draw at 32%, Le Havre AC at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Lorient to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lorient win
43%
Draw
32%
AC win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.12
Total 2.63
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.16x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Lorient's xG advantage (1.51 vs 1.12) combined with Le Havre's relegation desperation makes 1X at 76% the model's strongest play."