Bawler / FRANCE: Ligue 1 / Lorient
Team profile

Lorient Prediction

Per-game numbers from 34 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.3
a game
11.1 faced
On target
3.9
a game
3.9 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.5
scored – conceded
a game, 34 matches
Next match
28%
Lorient win chance
at Nice · Sat 22 Aug 18:45

Lorient prediction: for Lorient's next match — Nice vs Lorient on Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Nice are favoured (44%).

Lorient sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.31 expected goals a game and conceding 1.63. Next up is a trip to Nice, where the model has them as underdogs at 28%.

Lorient in numbers

34 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
Home 1.8Away 1.0
3.5
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
Home 3.2Away 3.8
11.3
Shots · per game
faced 11.1
Home 11.9Away 10.7
3.9
On target · per game
faced 3.9
Home 4.4Away 3.5
Last 6 games
17 May
0-2
vs Le Havre
5-1
10 May
4-0
@ Metz
4-7
02 May
2-2
@ PSG
2-12
26 Apr
2-3
vs Strasbourg
9-7
18 Apr
2-0
vs Marseille
1-7
12 Apr
0-2
@ Lyon
6-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Nice · Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
28%
Lorient
Draw
28%
Loss
44%
Nice
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Lorient compare with the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.31
Below average
Goals against
1.63
Leakier than most
Record
2W 2D 3L
7 settled
Real goals
1.6 – 1.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.31
Conceded1.63

The grey line on each bar is the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average (1.35 scored, 1.50 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Lorient fixtures (3/4).

How Bawler has done on Lorient

57%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 7
Goals (Over/Under)75%3/4
Result50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Sun 17 Mayvs Le Havre AC
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ Metz
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 May@ PSG
High confidence: 1X
Sun 26 Aprvs Strasbourg
High confidence: Lorient or Draw (Double Chance)
Sat 18 Aprvs Marseille
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Aprvs Paris FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Mar@ Toulouse
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INSouleymane FayeLWfrom Sporting CPLoan
INNoah MbambaCMfrom Bayer LeverkusenLoan
INGabin BernardeauRWfrom Nice€1m
INAlec GeorgenRBfrom DunkerqueFree transfer
OUTPablo PagisAMto Paris FC€15m
OUTDarlin YongwaCBto Norwich CityFree transfer
OUTSambou SoumanoSTto ReimsFree transfer
OUTLaurent AbergelDMto NiceFree transfer
OUTIsaac Monnierto SC BastiaLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Lorient and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly