> MATCH.PREDICT()·FRANCE: Ligue 1·Sunday 26 Apr, 13:00 UTC
Lorient vs Strasbourg
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
45.1% home26.2% draw28.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LorientstepStrasbourg
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.10
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lorient 2–3 Strasbourg
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+