FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Lorient 2–3 StrasbourgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lorient at 45%, draw at 26%, Strasbourg at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Lorient to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lorient win
45%
Draw
26%
Strasbourg win
29%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.10
Total 2.55
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Lorient or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost