> MATCH.PREDICT()·FRANCE: Ligue 1·Sunday 03 May, 18:45 UTC
Lyon vs Rennes
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
51.4% home24.9% draw23.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LyonstepRennes
1.85Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.00Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.30
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
3
1
1
7
10
6
3
1
2
7
10
6
3
1
3
5
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 10.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 23.4% · @ 4.27x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lyon 4–2 Rennes
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+