FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Lyon 4–2 RennesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lyon at 51%, draw at 25%, Rennes at 24%. The match ended 4-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Lyon.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Rennes win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.00 – 1.30
Total 3.29
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 4.27x
- 1X✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓