> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Manchester City's 2.03 xG dominance and title pressure make Over 1.5 Goals the decisive play at 81% probability.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Manchester City
Away
Aston Villa
Holding Champions League spot
4th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +3.4% for motivation
Win probability
58.2% home25.8% draw16.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Manchester CitystepAston Villa
1.88Base xG · rolling 26-match1.04
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.03Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.00
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
5
2
1
1
10
10
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
7
7
3
1
4
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+