FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Manchester City 1–2 Aston VillaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Manchester City at 58%, draw at 26%, Aston Villa at 16%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Manchester City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
58%
Draw
26%
Villa win
16%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.03 – 1.00
Total 3.03
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Manchester City's 2.03 xG dominance and title pressure make Over 1.5 Goals the decisive play at 81% probability."