> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Saturday 09 May, 16:30 UTC
Manchester City vs Brentford
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
54.0% home24.4% draw21.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Manchester CitystepBrentford
2.07Base xG · rolling 26-match1.45
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.23Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.39
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 28.1% · @ 3.56x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Manchester City 3–0 Brentford
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+