FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Manchester City 3–0 BrentfordMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Manchester City at 54%, draw at 24%, Brentford at 22%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Manchester City.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Brentford win
22%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.23 – 1.39
Total 3.63
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.56x
- 1X✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✓