> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Wednesday 13 May, 19:00 UTC
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Manchester City's title desperation and 2.42 xG versus Palace's 1.33 creates an asymmetric attacking advantage; back Over 1.5 Goals at 88% probability.
Win probability
58.9% home22.7% draw18.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Manchester CitystepCrystal Palace
2.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.42Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.33
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
2
3
2
1
1
6
8
5
2
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
6
7
5
2
1
4
3
4
3
1
5
2
2
1
1
6
1
1
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 9.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT + BTTS Yes + Home Win
Model 25.1% · @ 3.98x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Manchester City 3–0 Crystal Palace
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+