FT · England: Premier League · Wednesday, 13 May 2026
Manchester City 3–0 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 13 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Manchester City at 59%, draw at 23%, Crystal Palace at 18%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Manchester City.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
59%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Palace win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.42 – 1.33
Total 3.75
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.98x
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✗
- BTTS Yes✗
- Home Win✓
> What we said pre-match
"Manchester City's title desperation and 2.42 xG versus Palace's 1.33 creates an asymmetric attacking advantage; back Over 1.5 Goals at 88% probability."