> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 10 May, 19:00 UTC
Metz vs Lorient
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
32.7% home28.0% draw39.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MetzstepLorient
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match1.80
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.57Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.73
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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4
5
6
0
4
6
6
3
1
1
6
10
9
5
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
1
3
2
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Metz 0–4 Lorient
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+