FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Metz 0–4 LorientMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Metz at 33%, draw at 28%, Lorient at 39%. The match ended 0-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Lorient.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Metz win
33%
Draw
28%
Lorient win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.73
Total 3.31
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 44%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.34x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓