> MATCH.PREDICT()·FRANCE: Ligue 1·Saturday 02 May, 17:00 UTC
Metz vs Monaco
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
17.4% home21.3% draw61.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MetzstepMonaco
1.12Base xG · rolling 26-match2.49
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.21Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.39
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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8
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Away Win + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 13.1% · @ 7.66x
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⚡ Full-time recap available
Metz 1–2 Monaco
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+