FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Metz 1–2 MonacoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Metz at 17%, draw at 21%, Monaco at 61%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Monaco.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Metz win
17%
Draw
21%
Monaco win
61%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.21 – 2.39
Total 3.61
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 49%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 7.66x
- Away Win✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✓