> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Championship·Saturday 09 May, 11:30 UTC
Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
43.6% home27.7% draw28.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MiddlesbroughstepSouthampton
1.69Base xG · rolling 26-match1.52
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.83Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.46
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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6
0
4
5
4
2
1
1
7
10
7
4
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
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6
4
2
1
4
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2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT + 1X
Model 27.6% · @ 3.62x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Middlesbrough 0–0 Southampton
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+