FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Middlesbrough 0–0 SouthamptonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Middlesbrough at 44%, draw at 28%, Southampton at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Middlesbrough to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Middlesbrough win
44%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Southampton win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.83 – 1.46
Total 3.29
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.62x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✗
- 1X✓