> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Championship·Monday 11 May, 19:00 UTC
Millwall vs Hull City
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Millwall's 0.81 xG advantage and home positioning justify backing the home win at 55% probability despite Hull's playoff desperation.
Win probability
53.3% home25.2% draw21.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MillwallstepHull City
1.98Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.14Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.33
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + 1X + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 34.2% · @ 2.93x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Millwall 0–2 Hull City
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+