FT · England: Championship · Monday, 11 May 2026
Millwall 0–2 Hull CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Millwall at 53%, draw at 25%, Hull City at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Millwall to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
53%
Draw
25%
City win
21%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.14 – 1.33
Total 3.47
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.93x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
> What we said pre-match
"Millwall's 0.81 xG advantage and home positioning justify backing the home win at 55% probability despite Hull's playoff desperation."