> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Monday 11 May, 18:45 UTC
Napoli vs Bologna
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Napoli's title desperation combined with 0.44 xG advantage justifies backing 1X despite modest win probability.
Win probability
44.8% home29.7% draw25.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NapolistepBologna
1.55Base xG · rolling 26-match1.27
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.23
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
1
9
11
7
3
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Napoli 2–3 Bologna
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+