FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 11 May 2026
Napoli 2–3 BolognaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Napoli at 45%, draw at 30%, Bologna at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Napoli to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
45%
Draw
30%
Bologna win
26%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.67 – 1.23
Total 2.90
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.55x
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- 1X✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Napoli's title desperation combined with 0.44 xG advantage justifies backing 1X despite modest win probability."