Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Napoli
Team profile

Napoli Prediction

Per-game numbers from 46 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.0
a game
10.5 faced
On target
4.5
a game
3.4 faced
Goals
1.5 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 46 matches
Next match
46%
Napoli win chance
at Genoa · Sat 22 Aug 18:45

Napoli prediction: for Napoli's next match — Genoa vs Napoli on Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Napoli win looks most likely (46%).

Napoli defend well, conceding 1.04 expected goals per game — below the Serie A average of 1.32. Next up is a trip to Genoa, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 46%.

Napoli in numbers

46 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 1.7Away 1.2
5.6
Corners · per game
give up 2.9
Home 6.1Away 5.0
13.0
Shots · per game
faced 10.5
Home 13.8Away 12.1
4.5
On target · per game
faced 3.4
Home 5.1Away 3.9
Last 6 games
24 May
1-0
vs Udinese
3-3
17 May
3-0
@ Pisa
6-1
11 May
2-3
vs Bologna
7-1
02 May
0-0
@ Como
2-3
24 Apr
4-0
vs Cremonese
7-5
18 Apr
0-2
vs Lazio
12-0

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Genoa · Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
46%
Napoli
Draw
31%
Loss
23%
Genoa
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Napoli compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.43
Above average
Goals against
1.04
Tighter than most
Record
4W 0D 2L
6 settled
Real goals
1.3 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.43
Conceded1.04

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.43 xG per match · +0.19 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.24.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.04 xG per match · -0.28 vs league average of 1.32.

How Bawler has done on Napoli

33%
of high-confidence calls correct — 2 of 6, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Result50%2/4
Goals (Over/Under)0%0/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 24 Mayvs Udinese
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Pisa
High confidence: X2
Mon 11 Mayvs Bologna
High confidence: 1X
Sat 18 Aprvs Lazio
High confidence: 1X
Mon 06 Aprvs AC Milan
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 20 Mar@ Cagliari
High confidence: X2

Transfer activity

INRasmus HøjlundSTfrom Manchester United€44m
INAlisson SantosAMfrom Sporting CP€17m
INVanja Milinkovic-SavicGKfrom Torino€6m
INMattia Espositofrom Sorrento€700k
OUTMiguel GutiérrezLWBto Bayer Leverkusen€26m
OUTEljif ElmasAMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTGiovanni SimeoneSTto Torino€7.2m
OUTRomelu LukakuSTto Fenerbahçe€6m
OUTAlessandro ZanoliRMto Udinese€5m
OUTLuis HasaCMto FrosinoneUndisclosed
OUTGiuseppe AmbrosinoSTto ModenaLoan
OUTAlessio ZerbinRMto FrosinoneUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Napoli and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly