> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 24 May, 16:00 UTC
Napoli vs Udinese
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Napoli's title-race desperation and 0.47 xG advantage drives Over 1.5 Goals at 81% probability despite modest total shot volume.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Napoli
Away
Udinese
Nothing to play for
10th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Win probability
44.4% home32.6% draw23.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NapolistepUdinese
1.35Base xG · rolling 26-match1.03
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.46Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.99
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
9
4
1
1
13
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
1
3
4
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Napoli 1–0 Udinese
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+