FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Napoli 1–0 UdineseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Napoli at 44%, draw at 33%, Udinese at 23%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Napoli.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
33%
Udinese win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 0.99
Total 2.45
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Napoli's title-race desperation and 0.47 xG advantage drives Over 1.5 Goals at 81% probability despite modest total shot volume."