> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 02 May, 23:30 UTC
New England Revolution vs Charlotte FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
42.6% home26.3% draw31.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
New England RevolutionstepCharlotte FC
1.65Base xG · rolling 26-match1.56
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.78Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.50
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 7.5 Corners + Over 9.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 25.7% · @ 3.90x
Take this pick →> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%@ 1.67x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Anytime ScorerPro
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%@ 2.78x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
New England Revolution 1–0 Charlotte FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+