FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
New England Revolution 1–0 Charlotte FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had New England Revolution at 43%, draw at 26%, Charlotte FC at 31%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward New England Revolution.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Revolution win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
FC win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.78 – 1.50
Total 3.28
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 43%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.90x
- 1X✓
- Over 7.5 Corners✓
- Over 9.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗