> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 09 May, 23:30 UTC
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
36.0% home33.7% draw30.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
New England RevolutionstepPhiladelphia Union
1.19Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.16
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
9
10
6
2
1
1
11
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7
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
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3
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2
1
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1
1
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%@ 1.67x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Anytime ScorerPro
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%@ 2.78x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
New England Revolution 2–1 Philadelphia Union
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+