FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
New England Revolution 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had New England Revolution at 36%, draw at 34%, Philadelphia Union at 30%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward New England Revolution.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Revolution win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
34%
Union win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.16
Total 2.44
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost