> MATCH.PREDICT()·EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs·Thursday 30 Apr, 19:00 UTC
Nottingham vs Aston Villa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
42.9% home29.4% draw27.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NottinghamstepAston Villa
1.39Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.16
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Nottingham 1–0 Aston Villa
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+