FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs · Thursday, 30 April 2026
Nottingham 1–0 Aston VillaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 30 April 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Nottingham at 43%, draw at 29%, Aston Villa at 28%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Nottingham.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nottingham win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Villa win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.16
Total 2.66
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost