> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Tuesday 12 May, 19:30 UTC
Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Atlético Madrid's Champions League desperation outweighs even xG parity against a mid-table Osasuna side lacking comparable motivation.
Win probability
35.5% home28.8% draw35.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
OsasunastepAtlético Madrid
1.47Base xG · rolling 26-match1.65
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.59Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.59
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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11
8
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + X2 + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 27.0% · @ 3.71x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Osasuna 1–2 Atlético Madrid
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+