FT · Spain: La Liga · Tuesday, 12 May 2026
Osasuna 1–2 Atlético MadridMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 12 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Osasuna at 36%, draw at 29%, Atlético Madrid at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Osasuna to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
36%
Draw
29%
Madrid win
36%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.59 – 1.59
Total 3.18
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 40%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.71x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
> What we said pre-match
"Atlético Madrid's Champions League desperation outweighs even xG parity against a mid-table Osasuna side lacking comparable motivation."