> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Osasuna vs Espanyol
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Osasuna's superior xG edge (1.41-1.19) combined with home advantage justifies backing the draw with away goals insurance at 76%.
Win probability
38.7% home32.4% draw28.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
OsasunastepEspanyol
1.30Base xG · rolling 26-match1.24
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.41Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.19
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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9
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Osasuna 1–2 Espanyol
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+