FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Osasuna 1–2 EspanyolMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Osasuna at 39%, draw at 32%, Espanyol at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Osasuna to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
39%
Draw
32%
Espanyol win
29%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.19
Total 2.60
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.34x
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Osasuna's superior xG edge (1.41-1.19) combined with home advantage justifies backing the draw with away goals insurance at 76%."