> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 10 May, 19:00 UTC
Paris Saint-Germain vs Brest
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
62.5% home21.9% draw15.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Paris Saint-GermainstepBrest
2.29Base xG · rolling 26-match1.26
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.47Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.21
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
3
2
1
1
6
8
5
2
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
3
6
8
5
2
1
4
4
5
3
1
5
2
2
1
1
6
1
1
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Paris Saint-Germain 1–0 Brest
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+