FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Paris Saint-Germain 1–0 BrestMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Paris Saint-Germain at 63%, draw at 22%, Brest at 16%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Paris Saint-Germain.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Saint-Germain win
63%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Brest win
16%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.47 – 1.21
Total 3.68
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.03x
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗