> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 10 May, 16:00 UTC
Parma vs AS Roma
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
27.4% home31.0% draw41.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ParmastepAS Roma
1.13Base xG · rolling 26-match1.60
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.22Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.54
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
8
4
1
1
8
12
9
5
2
1
2
5
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Parma 2–3 AS Roma
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+