FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Parma 2–3 AS RomaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Parma at 27%, draw at 31%, AS Roma at 42%. The match ended 2-3 — confirming the model's lean toward AS Roma.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Parma win
27%
Draw
31%
Roma win
42%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.22 – 1.54
Total 2.75
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.33x
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓